06 Oct Tue 2009
Disgruntled Peak Oilers and Farmers
The so-called peak oil "experts" are starting to get a little disgruntled. For example, Nate Hagens has written a piece called "Whither The Oil Drum?" that can be found at the Energy Bulletin website http://www.energybulletin.net/node/50288. The upshot of Hagen's essay is that people aren't taking the problem seriously. More awareness, yes - more action to mitigate the crisis, no. He even questions whether the Oil Drum website should continue and whether the concept of Peak Oil should be reframed. He makes some good points, but he doesn't seem to be invested for the long term, which is part of the problem he delineates. He is disgruntled over the lack of progress in just four years (since 2005). He needs to settle in for a 40 year (or more!) time span as I, and other activists, have done. Over time, some clarity will likely emerge.
For example, notice how I used the term "mitigate," rather than "solve" the Peak Oil crisis. We can think of mitigation as making the "bad" less bad. In other words, there is no solution, but we can make the situation more tolerable, or "less bad." It's like playing on the defensive back line in soccer. Because you are not in possession of the ball and so do not initiate action, you are always being reactive. Very often you only have choices between the "least bad" of several alternatives. Being proactive is foolish unless you have a second defender right behind you. This analogy illustrates the essence of mitigation. In the peak oil/climate change dilemma, we only have choices among bad alternatives. [If you really think we can develop renewable energy resources fast enough and in sufficient quantities to replace oil, you have NOT been paying attention. Ditto for the airy-fairy idea that we can develop enough community-based alternatives that we can keep our cushy, whitebread lifestyles.] We need to choose the "least bad" alternative. One of my alternatives that I continue to flog incessantly is that we need to move toward 20% of our adult population working as full-time farmers. This will take up more of the excess labor painfully available right now and provide more local food that is grown sustainably. This alternative accepts the fact that the era of cheap food is over. There are still good deals to be had right now, but that could end at any time. Locally grown potatoes at a good price will continue.
In short, mitigation is not just a concept for archaeologists wishing to preserve cultural resources of ethnic groups the main culture tried to wipe out in the past. It has an inherent quality of accepting that we are in deep doo-doo; dare I say doomed? How do you get up and do your work every day when you accept that we are on a short leash? You might want to get used to this constant grinding pressure. Think on it as you weed your carrots.
For example, notice how I used the term "mitigate," rather than "solve" the Peak Oil crisis. We can think of mitigation as making the "bad" less bad. In other words, there is no solution, but we can make the situation more tolerable, or "less bad." It's like playing on the defensive back line in soccer. Because you are not in possession of the ball and so do not initiate action, you are always being reactive. Very often you only have choices between the "least bad" of several alternatives. Being proactive is foolish unless you have a second defender right behind you. This analogy illustrates the essence of mitigation. In the peak oil/climate change dilemma, we only have choices among bad alternatives. [If you really think we can develop renewable energy resources fast enough and in sufficient quantities to replace oil, you have NOT been paying attention. Ditto for the airy-fairy idea that we can develop enough community-based alternatives that we can keep our cushy, whitebread lifestyles.] We need to choose the "least bad" alternative. One of my alternatives that I continue to flog incessantly is that we need to move toward 20% of our adult population working as full-time farmers. This will take up more of the excess labor painfully available right now and provide more local food that is grown sustainably. This alternative accepts the fact that the era of cheap food is over. There are still good deals to be had right now, but that could end at any time. Locally grown potatoes at a good price will continue.
In short, mitigation is not just a concept for archaeologists wishing to preserve cultural resources of ethnic groups the main culture tried to wipe out in the past. It has an inherent quality of accepting that we are in deep doo-doo; dare I say doomed? How do you get up and do your work every day when you accept that we are on a short leash? You might want to get used to this constant grinding pressure. Think on it as you weed your carrots.
Walter_1
08:42 AM PDT